Best start book of skald
Lv2 replace Shroud of Golubria with Lv3 Spider form
If it doesn't fit anywhere else, it belongs here. Also, come here if you just need to get hammered.
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bel wrote:Incidentally, I have seen in other places, this rule that "shroud = +10 hp". Is there some reasoning behind this or is this number drawn from the nether regions?
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Sandman25 wrote:I would prefer the spell removed (if it cannot be changed to work like RMsl). Casting it for every battle is annoying and it is interesting only early game when you should choose between this spell and other spells like Song of Slaying or Infusion due to low MP.
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Berder wrote:If you think shroud could be replaced by a passive buff that doesn't recast itself during combat, you don't understand the full potential of the spell. Shroud is one of the spells you actually do frequently want to recast in the middle of combat. It's +10 HP. Any combat turn where you would be helped by drinking a potion of +10 HP -2 MP, you should cast shroud if it's not up. I very frequently recast it in the middle of fights throughout the game.
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Sandman25 wrote:Berder wrote:If you think shroud could be replaced by a passive buff that doesn't recast itself during combat, you don't understand the full potential of the spell. Shroud is one of the spells you actually do frequently want to recast in the middle of combat. It's +10 HP. Any combat turn where you would be helped by drinking a potion of +10 HP -2 MP, you should cast shroud if it's not up. I very frequently recast it in the middle of fights throughout the game.
Are you talking about pre-Temple?
I don't think it is a good idea later as the spell is expected to expire immediately when attacked by 21+ damage monsters and such monsters are common even before Lair. I mean when you are expected to get 10.5 damage per turn you should not heal 10 HP (I believe you can ignore misses here as they are irrelevant). It's fine while waiting for teleport of course.
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Berder wrote:If you think shroud could be replaced by a passive buff that doesn't recast itself during combat, you don't understand the full potential of the spell. Shroud is one of the spells you actually do frequently want to recast in the middle of combat. It's +10 HP. Any combat turn where you would be helped by drinking a potion of +10 HP -2 MP, you should cast shroud if it's not up.
Berder wrote:I very frequently recast it in the middle of fights throughout the game.
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KoboldLord wrote:If a fight is actually dangerous, I'm likely to be taking more than 10hp/turn and I want to finish that fight as soon as possible. I don't care about spreadsheet-optimizing my battles against river rats, and I do not believe the game mechanics should push me to do so.
Berder wrote:I very frequently recast it in the middle of fights throughout the game.
And that's terrible.
The game mechanics should not be making you manually press a button to tread water. If a trade of mp for hp is intended, it should be applied directly rather than making you button-mash in a situation that is supposed to be interesting.
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neil wrote:Probably you could prove that the expected prevention is 10 for any sequence of hits (ignoring rounding), but I'm too lazy at the moment.
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bel wrote:1. Averages are not the thing which matter in getting you killed, spikes in damage are.
bel wrote:3. You should test with EV close to 0, because evaded attacks are not relevant for calculating average.
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Berder wrote:bel wrote:1. Averages are not the thing which matter in getting you killed, spikes in damage are.
Spikes matter, sure, but the average case also matters. If your average case is good then you're less likely to drop into low HP where a damage spike could finish you.
Berder wrote:bel wrote:3. You should test with EV close to 0, because evaded attacks are not relevant for calculating average.
No - evaded attacks are relevant. All you need to know is that shroud gives the equivalent of +10 HP, and you're spending a turn to cast it, therefore you don't want to be taking more than 10 HP of damage per turn on average or it's not worth it. Evasion reduces the average amount of damage per turn you're taking, so it counts.
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bel wrote:The point is that evading attack reduces the average damage, but in this case it is irrelevant whether you have a shroud or not, because evaded attacks are not blocked by a shroud. To see this, consider the case where you have some monster doing 1000 damage, but it only has accuracy 1%. The average damage is 10, but shroud is useless here.
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bel wrote:I am arguing that average is fundamentally the wrong way to think about this. To see this, suppose you are adjacent to the monster I described above (1000 damage, 1% accuracy). Suppose you can 2-shot the monster. Do you cast shroud, or do you try to kill it immediately?
If you cast the shroud, and then try to kill it, you allow it 2 shots at you, so your death chance is roughly 2%.
If you simply try to kill it, you allow it only 1 shot at you, so your death chance is 1%.
By casting shroud, you have doubled your death chance.
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Dam \ HP 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1 3.6 5.8 7.5 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.9 10.1
2 3.3 5.4 7.0 7.9 8.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.7 9.7
3 3.0 5.2 6.5 7.6 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.6
4 2.8 4.9 6.3 7.4 8.2 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.7 9.8
5 2.6 4.6 6.1 6.9 7.9 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.4 9.5
6 2.4 4.3 5.8 6.9 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.1 9.4 9.5
7 2.3 4.1 5.6 6.4 7.5 8.0 8.7 8.8 9.0 9.3
8 2.2 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.1 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.9 9.3
9 2.1 3.7 5.0 6.1 6.9 7.6 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.0
10 2.0 3.6 4.9 5.8 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.4 8.6 8.9
11 1.8 3.4 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.2 7.7 8.3 8.4 8.8
12 1.7 3.3 4.4 5.6 6.2 7.0 7.8 8.3 8.2 8.5
13 1.7 3.2 4.3 5.4 6.1 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.3 8.5
14 1.5 3.1 4.3 5.1 6.1 6.5 7.2 7.9 8.2 8.6
15 1.6 2.9 4.1 5.2 5.6 6.4 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.3
16 1.5 2.9 3.8 4.9 5.6 6.4 7.0 7.1 7.6 8.2
17 1.4 2.8 3.7 4.7 5.7 6.0 6.6 7.3 7.6 7.9
18 1.3 2.6 3.7 4.6 5.4 6.0 6.5 7.3 7.5 7.9
19 1.3 2.5 3.6 4.3 5.1 5.9 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.9
20 1.2 2.4 3.2 4.5 5.1 5.8 6.2 6.8 7.4 7.7
21 1.2 2.6 3.5 4.3 5.0 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.4
22 1.2 2.3 3.2 3.9 4.9 5.5 6.0 6.6 7.2 7.5
23 1.0 2.2 3.3 3.9 4.9 5.2 6.0 6.4 6.5 7.1
24 1.1 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.6 5.5 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.2
25 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.9 4.6 5.1 5.5 6.4 6.5 6.9
26 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.7 4.4 5.2 5.5 5.9 6.5 6.8
27 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.4 4.3 4.9 5.6 6.1 6.6 6.9
28 0.9 1.8 2.9 3.4 4.3 4.9 5.2 5.9 6.5 6.6
29 1.0 1.8 2.8 3.5 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.7 6.2 6.5
30 0.9 1.8 2.7 3.3 4.1 4.6 5.2 5.8 6.4 6.5
31 0.9 1.7 2.6 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.1 5.6 6.1 6.1
32 0.9 1.8 2.5 3.2 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.5 5.9 6.2
33 0.8 1.7 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.3 5.1 5.4 6.0 6.0
34 0.8 1.7 2.4 3.0 3.8 4.3 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.3
35 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.1 3.6 4.4 4.5 5.4 5.4 5.9
36 0.7 1.6 2.4 3.0 3.7 3.9 4.7 5.2 5.2 6.1
37 0.8 1.6 2.1 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.7 4.9 5.3 5.9
38 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.4 4.8 5.4 5.9
39 0.7 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.5 5.5
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Berder wrote:I ran a simulation to determine effectiveness of shroud.
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neil wrote:Berder wrote:I ran a simulation to determine effectiveness of shroud.
Did you take into account that shroud triggers on only 1/3 of damaging hits? That would shift the total down even further when the dam/HP ratio is high.
# calculate whether shroud of golubria triggers for a given dam
# 0 = doesn't trigger
# 1 = blocks damage
# -1 = fails
def shroud(dam):
if random.randint(1,3) != 1:
return 0
if random.randint(1, dam+10) <= 10:
return 1
return -1
# simulate being dealt dam damage repeatedly, from starting hp of hp
# return the amount of damage prevented by shroud before the shroud fails or you die
def shroudsim(hp,dam):
shroudpower = 0
tdam = 0
while tdam < hp:
s = shroud(dam)
if s == -1:
return shroudpower
if s == 1:
shroudpower += min(dam, hp - tdam)
else:
tdam += dam
return shroudpower
def shroudtable():
print "Dam \ HP".ljust(10),
for hp in xrange(10,110,10):
print str(hp).rjust(5),
print
for dam in xrange(1,40,1):
print str(dam).ljust(10),
for hp in xrange(10,110,10):
sim = sum([shroudsim(hp,dam) for x in xrange(10000)]) / 10000.
print ("%.1f" % sim).rjust(5),
print
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Berder wrote:Yes, and more effective if you have high HP.
An anecdote on the late game usefulness of Shroud: with a couple different characters I have been in long corridor fights in vaults:5 where I cast and recast shroud many times over the course of the combat - maybe 5 or 6 times in one combat. I was also recasting regen. My HP stayed in a safe area, but not quite full. In this particular case, because each cast of shroud actually did its job long enough to fail, each cast of shroud was actually worth about the full 10 HP, and casting it 5 or 6 times means at the end of the fight I had 50 or 60 HP more than if I hadn't used shroud. If I hadn't used shroud then I would have been 50 or 60 HP lower, and would have been in a dangerous position, being overwhelmed by the horde.
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