Halls Hopper
Posts: 65
Joined: Monday, 28th May 2012, 06:29
Friday, 21st September 2012, 08:12
Enchanting with EWI and EWII - probabilities
Was just curious which enchant level is the most probable if I use N scrolls of EWI (or N scrolls of EWII) on a weapon already enchanted to +4.
This table was made assuming the following:
Probability to success upgrading from +4 is 5/9; 4/9 from +5; 3/9 from +6; 2/9 from +7; 1/9 from +8.
The result is the following.
"N" column is the exact number of scrolls used; "Average" contains an average enchant you'll gain out of this N; "MaxPrb" column contains the most probable enchantment level you'll achieve; other columns contain rounded probability to have exactly this enchantment level after N scrolls used.
Remember, this values was rounded after calculating so actually the probability of having +4 after 14 scroll uses is about 0,0012% and after 15 scrolls it's about 0,0005%. More, even after 20 scroll uses you'll have +4 with a probability about 0,000009% instead of 0. Although in practice you'll never see +4 after 20 scrolls of enchantments of course, the probability is too low.
This table was made assuming the following:
Probability to success upgrading from +4 is 5/9; 4/9 from +5; 3/9 from +6; 2/9 from +7; 1/9 from +8.
The result is the following.
- Code:
N Average MaxPrb +4 +5 +6 +7 +8 +9
01 4,556 5 44,444 55,556 0 0 0 0
02 5,049 5 19,753 55,556 24,691 0 0 0
03 5,488 5 8,779 41,838 41,152 8,230 0 0
04 5,879 6 3,902 28,121 46,030 20,119 1,829 0
05 6,225 6 1,734 17,790 43,184 30,991 6,097 0,203
06 6,534 7 0,771 10,847 36,696 38,499 12,306 0,881
07 6,808 7 0,343 6,454 29,285 42,176 19,494 2,248
08 7,051 7 0,152 3,776 22,392 42,565 26,701 4,414
09 7,268 7 0,068 2,182 16,606 40,570 33,193 7,381
10 7,460 8 0,030 1,250 12,041 37,090 38,520 11,069
11 7,631 8 0,013 0,711 8,583 32,861 42,483 15,349
12 7,783 8 0,006 0,403 6,038 28,420 45,065 20,069
13 7,919 8 0,003 0,227 4,204 24,117 46,373 25,076
14 8,039 8 0,001 0,128 2,904 20,159 46,580 30,229
15 8,146 8 0,001 0,072 1,992 16,647 45,884 35,404
16 8,240 8 0 0,040 1,360 13,612 44,485 40,503
17 8,325 9 0 0,022 0,924 11,040 42,567 45,445
18 8,400 9 0 0,012 0,626 8,895 40,291 50,175
19 8,467 9 0 0,007 0,423 7,127 37,791 54,652
20 8,526 9 0 0,004 0,285 5,684 35,176 58,851
"N" column is the exact number of scrolls used; "Average" contains an average enchant you'll gain out of this N; "MaxPrb" column contains the most probable enchantment level you'll achieve; other columns contain rounded probability to have exactly this enchantment level after N scrolls used.
Remember, this values was rounded after calculating so actually the probability of having +4 after 14 scroll uses is about 0,0012% and after 15 scrolls it's about 0,0005%. More, even after 20 scroll uses you'll have +4 with a probability about 0,000009% instead of 0. Although in practice you'll never see +4 after 20 scrolls of enchantments of course, the probability is too low.