Assessing Threats

[Utis]

Are there any rules of thumb on how to estimate how dangerous a monster is in relation to one's current skills and equipment? I'm getting quite good now at taking my hands off the keyboard, reading the Wiki and thinking about what to do as soon as something new comes up. However, this is not much use, if I cannot estimate how big the threat actually is. An ogre, for instance, might be fatal for build A at XL B, but a pushover for build C at XL D.

I'm thinking specifially about melee. The rule of thumb "If it looks dangerous, avoid it." is a good one, but it has its limits, since at one point I *have* to kill things, and sometimes I'm facing the dilemma of either attempting an unlikely escape or facing an unknown danger prepared. Also, retreat might lead to something more dangerous upstairs.

I suppose I could try to get a deep understanding of game mechanics and calculate the odds in each case. But I'm rather hoping, there are some fast rules of thumb; for instance, "To face a melee monster with this and that HP and damage, you need at least this and that in HP, AC/EV and weapon skill."

[rchandra]

The "it looks easy", "it looks extremely dangerous" etc. you get from examining the monsters (with xv) works ok for melee vs melee with no major abilities on either side.

Other than that, your main concerns are speed and spells/abilities of the target. You will get some of this from the xv screen and full details from the knowledge bots. Use more paranoia for fast monsters and those with nasty abilities (use consumables/spells pre-fight, or avoid entirely) until you get the hang of them. A monster that is slower than you is trivial to escape from, and one that is the same speed usually not too bad (particularly if you don't fight it).

Common early threats like ogres and centaurs you'll quickly get some idea of who dies to them and who does not.

[XuaXua]

Should never have posted a thread like this; it is dangerous.

[njvack]

I've changed the topic title to "Assessing Threats".

[crate]

Play the game more, it will come naturally. Until then, assume that your character is terrible and everything is a threat.

[BlackSheep]

Agreed, if things hit you for 20-40 damage at once enough times, you learn to treat them with due respect. There's no real formula to it.

[moocowmoocow]

Yeah as you play more you get a better feel. When I hit a unique I look it up on the knowledge bots to check its spells and HD.

[Phrizz]

The "it looks easy", "it looks extremely dangerous" etc. you get from examining the monsters (with xv) works ok for melee vs melee with no major abilities on either side.

Other than that, your main concerns are speed and spells/abilities of the target. You will get some of this from the xv screen and full details from the knowledge bots. Use more paranoia for fast monsters and those with nasty abilities (use consumables/spells pre-fight, or avoid entirely) until you get the hang of them. A monster that is slower than you is trivial to escape from, and one that is the same speed usually not too bad (particularly if you don't fight it).

Common early threats like ogres and centaurs you'll quickly get some idea of who dies to them and who does not.

+1 for this. I'm not sure about console, but on webtiles, monsters that "look dangerous" will have their names displayed in yellow in the monsters-in-view display. "Extremely dangerous" monsters are displayed in red. While it's not perfect, it's a pretty good guide to what you should pay attention to.

[Dustbin]

Watching other people play online is a very good way of learning what to do about certain threats, which can make things you would previously balk at much easier to deal with.

[cursednobleman]

I think I learn most lessons by dying to them, or in the case of trolls, ogres, and orc priests/wizards, dying to them repeatedly. Losing characters is an inefficient, but effective way of teaching you how much hp and dps you need to take em on or if you should run. Otherwise, if it's a unique or ghost, run or get dangerous. I haven't died to Sigmund, Grinder, or a unique that I FEAR in ages because of this.

According to my records, I haven't died to enough slime creatures though.

[palin]

+1 for this. I'm not sure about console, but on webtiles, monsters that "look dangerous" will have their names displayed in yellow in the monsters-in-view display. "Extremely dangerous" monsters are displayed in red. While it's not perfect, it's a pretty good guide to what you should pay attention to.

In console they are dark grey, grey, yellow and red too. Of course sometimes it depends on the character you're building...

[Utis]

The "it looks easy", "it looks extremely dangerous" etc. you get from examining the monsters (with xv) works ok for melee vs melee with no major abilities on either side.

I forgot about that. Thank you! But it doesn't take equipment into account, or abilities like "Heroism" (when I have them, that is) or potions of might or speed, does it? I had a couple of situations where "extremely dangerous" turned out to be -- when I was cornered -- quite managable, while I was at least once 2-shot by a merely "dangerous" melee monster.

-- I understand that caution is the better part of valour. However, I also died several times, because avoiding to much left me with no place to retreat. --

Still, the information from examining is extremely valuable for figuring out *when* I'm ready to take on that ogre with a given strategy/build. However, I suppose there is no rough-and-ready formula for vague estimates? For instance: "Hmm, with my armour and chance to hit + damage and with that ogre's health and damage, I have -- let me see -- probably a X% chance of coming out alive, if I face him at full health. With my potion of might that raises to Y%. The level above is haunted by Sigmund and a player ghost, so the chances of survival are slim, even if no bat pops up between me and the stairs. If I use that wand of slowing, my chances of affecting him are Z%. So my best bet is ...."

Assuming, I'd be willing to do the actual math (for instance for an advanced character to whom I have grown attached). Where could I find the relevant formulas? I tried to read on the Wiki how chance-to-hit is calculated, in particular in relation with armour penalties, but I couldn't find it.

Sorry for the thread/threat screw-up. English is not my first language, and it seems zat vonce in a vhile zis accent of mine affects my spelling ...

[palin]

If you are interested in the link, this is the wiki page: http://crawl.chaosforge.org/index.php?title=To_hit
I can't say it's right, wrong or incomplete/inaccurate. Make you judgment.

[Herode2]

Losing characters is an inefficient, but effective way of [bla]

Looks like an oxymoron to me (maybe because I don't speak english). Oxymorons are dangerous.

[cerebovssquire]

Looks like an oxymoron to me (maybe because I don't speak english). Oxymorons are dangerous.

"efficient and inefficient" or "good and evil" are oxymorons when describing the same thing
effective but inefficient = killing a fly with a nuclear bomb

[Confidence Interval]

Oxymorons are dangerous.

This. I lost a very promising SpDK to an oxymoron on D8 a week or two ago: it cast confusion on me and I drowned.

[Utis]

If you are interested in the link, this is the wiki page: http://crawl.chaosforge.org/index.php?title=To_hit
I can't say it's right, wrong or incomplete/inaccurate. Make you judgment.

Thank you! More for fun than for profit, I actually went ahead and spent quite some time reading Wiki pages and Henzell answers to calculate the average outcome of one "real life" situation. I don't think, I did it correctly, but I do think it gave me a couple of ideas about what matters in the early game. (I took rather extensive notes, so if somebody is interested ...)

[Davion Fuxa]

In Assessing Threats I generally go by whether the monster is 'Dangerous' or 'Very Dangerous', and if the Wiki is telling me that the monster is going to be exceeding dangerous. I good example of this as I'm writing this post is Saint Roka. I actually had read about it being dangerous on the Wiki, but just from the cadre of everything around him I engaged cautiously - even when I got him into a situation that caused him, and him alone, to follow me up a stairs I still engaged cautiously. Took quite a bit too before I finished that Orc off.

Generally experience also helps quite a bit against monsters I've thought before - although those tend to be the monsters that kill me.