Berder wrote:I already explained that by proof, I mean proof of exactly how much worse axes are in the early game. If it doesn't lead to loss that often in practice, then axes may still be worth it due to their improved damage in times of danger later on in the game.
I think it is pretty unreasonable to ask for "proof" in a context like this. You would be as hard pressed to "prove" axes are good. We can look at their base stats and properties and all that, but success is always going to be more reliant on player behavior than anything. That is something you can't really get around even if you start running calculations and all that jazz.
Berder wrote:This is especially true if you're like me and don't feel too bummed about a pre-lair death, but would be really pissed if he made it to vaults and died: later game effectiveness is more important.
This is very subjective. You can't say late game is more important than early game in general, maybe it is for you. As a matter of fact, late game is irrelevant for the majority characters in Crawl since they don't get to see it in the first place.
This is also subjective, but I would say that my deaths in the late-game are usually due to some major tactical or strategical screw up rather than weapon choice like Axes vs Long Blades (they are both fairly good options at that point and the differences are not as big as we make them out to be).
On the other hand, in the early game the difference it is more noticeable IMO. Hallways are plentiful in the early dungeon, fighting things 1 on 1 is very easy. The Lair has a more open layout, but other than for packs, enemies are rather spaced and you can often limit how many you fight at any time - and then there is the Hydra problem. I think its normal that people won't prioritize cleaving over investing in cheaper skills at this point, and past it the difference should not be too huge since you are given more tools and room to build and round out your character.
Overall, I don't think axes are bad. If I find something that can carry me through the early and/or mid-game (whether it is an axe, polearm, or anything) I will stick with that weapon category. If my build or race has good synergy with axes I will stick with them too. But yeah, it usually boils down to cleaving vs XP - with the difference in experience from using a triple sword (24) to and executioner's axe (26) you could get another skill at level 0 to level 12-13 and a skill at level 12 to almost level 17. I would usually need a pretty big encouragement to pick cleaving over XP, accuracy and base damage - but for a player that is used to rely on and make effective use of it I could see this not being the case.