The Tavern

People talk about early game being hard, boots of running being very important, heavy armour useful, launchers OP, not using heavy weapon at 0 skill, VM a weak background, Na a weak species, Vehumet a weak god etc. and then I find a NaVM winner of Vehumet with 0 Armour and starting Dodging 1.5 which was in robe without Statue Form until XL 19 using great sword with 0 Long Blades a lot in a 6th game of a streak

Code:: 2356530 ... the Cloud Mage (level 27, 356/356 HPs) Began as a Naga Venom Mage on Dec 25, 2017. Was the Champion of Vehumet. Escaped with the Orb ... and 4 runes on Dec 26, 2017! Skills: + Level 21.5 Fighting - Level 1.5 Dodging - Level 3.3 Stealth - Level 9.0 Shields + Level 24.8 Spellcasting - Level 10.6 Conjurations - Level 8.6 Transmutations + Level 26.9 Air Magic - Level 12.7 Earth Magic - Level 7.7 Poison Magic - Level 10.2 Evocations Skill XL: | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 | ---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+----- Fighting | 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 10 12 14 15 16 17 21 | 21.5 Air Magic | 1 2 4 5 7 8 9 12 13 15 16 18 20 21 22 23 24 26 | 26.9 Spellcasting | 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 24 | 24.8 Conjurations | 2 10 | 10.6 Poison Magic | 5 6 7 | 7.7 Evocations | 5 7 8 9 10 | 10.2 Earth Magic | 4 6 7 10 11 12 | 12.7 Transmutations | 8 | 8.6 Shields | 5 9 | 9.0 Dodging | | 1.5 Stealth | | 3.3 Action | 1- 3 | 4- 6 | 7- 9 | 10-12 | 13-15 | 16-18 | 19-21 | 22-24 | 25-27 || total -------------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------+-------++------- Melee: Spear | 12 | 3 | | | | | | | || 15 Falchion | | 11 | 32 | | | | | | || 43 Great sword | | | 50 | 75 | 243 | 161 | 26 | | || 555 Constrict | | | | | 70 | 58 | 45 | 22 | 53 || 248 Staff | | | | | | 7 | 66 | 82 | 265 || 420 Fire: Arbalest | | | 1 | | | | | | || 1 Cast: Sting | 12 | | 50 | 17 | | | | | || 79 Poisonous Vapours | 19 | 23 | 71 | 87 | 149 | 83 | 1 | | || 433 Mephitic Cloud | 1 | | 2 | 10 | 37 | 10 | 3 | | || 63 Olgreb's Toxic Ra | | 1 | 22 | 65 | 229 | 137 | | | || 454 Conjure Flame | | | 6 | 28 | 18 | 6 | | | || 58 Shock | | | 17 | 168 | | | | | || 185 Sandblast | | | | 22 | | | | | || 22 Stone Arrow | | | | 53 | 135 | 92 | 3 | | || 283 Airstrike | | | | | 117 | 235 | 96 | 52 | 124 || 624 Blink | | | | | 7 | 7 | 1 | | || 15 Lee's Rapid Decon | | | | | 33 | 70 | 141 | 36 | 85 || 365 Regeneration | | | | | | 13 | 39 | 40 | 89 || 181 Lightning Bolt | | | | | | 100 | 12 | | || 112 Tornado | | | | | | 21 | 130 | 102 | 226 || 479 Statue Form | | | | | | | 38 | 40 | 97 || 175 Chain Lightning | | | | | | | | | 2 || 2 Apportation | | | | | | | | | 3 || 3 Abil: Spit Poison | 21 | 16 | 17 | | | | | | || 54 End Transformatio | | | | | | | 1 | | || 1 Evoke: Wand | | | 1 | 5 | 23 | 40 | 12 | 2 | 12 || 95 Sack of spiders | | | | | 4 | | | | || 4 Phial of floods | | | | | 2 | 5 | 2 | | || 9 Use: Scroll | 5 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 17 || 89 Potion | | | 2 | | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 8 || 28 Stab: Sleeping | | 1 | 2 | | 1 | 1 | | | 1 || 6 Confused | | | | | 3 | 1 | | | || 4 Petrified | | | | | 1 | | | | || 1 Paralysed | | | | | 14 | 16 | | | || 30 Distracted | | | | | | | | | 1 || 1 Eat: Chunk | 4 | 5 | 20 | 17 | 23 | 21 | 34 | 15 | 24 || 163 Ration | | | | 1 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 17 | 21 || 73 Armor: Robe | 1 | 11 | 50 | 109 | 250 | 329 | 37 | | 10 || 797 Skin | | | | 1 | | | 228 | 185 | 590 || 1004 Dodge: Dodged | 14 | 15 | 81 | 135 | 287 | 277 | 204 | 122 | 323 || 1458 Block: Shield | | | | | | | 67 | 215 | 562 || 844 Rpst.: Falchion | | 6 | 8 | | | | | | || 14 Great sword | | | 19 | 35 | 47 | 55 | 10 | | || 166

He also used a ton of poison in the early game, a ton of lightning bolt and blink in the middle game, and a ton of tornado and blink in the late game. So killing things at range and keeping distance between himself and monsters were priority for this character. Go figure.

Well, I wouldn't call

Code:: Blink | | | | | 7 | 7 | 1 | | || 15

a ton of blink. Compare to my NaWz game:

Code:: Blink | | | 6 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 33 || 88

Hahaha i read it as 71 somehow. But still, he is killing things with ranged attacks and using a non-skilled greatsword to finish it off/remove popcorn. Your presentation was less than honest.

crawlnoob wrote:Your presentation was less than honest.

Why? I don't understand how he survived out-of-MP situations when some non-popcorn is still present. I am really impressed by his game.

0 skill melee is underrated if you have a good weapon enchant. One game I played I was killing things with glaive of the guard as a Fo with 0 skill in robes reasonably well.

VeryAngryFelid wrote:
crawlnoob wrote:Your presentation was less than honest.

Why? I don't understand how he survived out-of-MP situations when some non-popcorn is still present. I am really impressed by his game.

Unless the player for some reason has requested you not post the morgue, I think posting anything less than the full morgue is defacto "hiding something". I don't know if your write up is misleading or not, and I make no claim about that, because I have nothing to compare your description to.

In the big picture though, saying that skilled players can win a naga caster on the first try isn't really proving anything, other than some players are quite good. I'm not sure I'd call a naga caster OP, but they are certainly very winnable by players who, before starting the naga caster, was already on a 5 win streak.

After a certain point in a streak, at around 4 wins, it's more likely they're going to win the next game then lose it. There are 375 4 length streaks and 519 streaks of 5 or more wins. This even undercounts somewhat because some of those 375 4 win streaks are still active, but I just combined active/inactive streaks.

http://crawl.berotato.org/crawl/morgue/ ... 211358.txt
There, now it doesnt look OP anymore.

crawlnoob wrote:Hahaha i read it as 71 somehow. But still, he is killing things with ranged attacks and using a non-skilled greatsword to finish it off/remove popcorn. Your presentation was less than honest.

Code:: Armor: Robe | 1 | 11 | 50 | 109 | 250 | 329 | 37 | | 10 || 797 Skin | | | | 1 | | | 228 | 185 | 590 || 1004 Dodge: Dodged | 14 | 15 | 81 | 135 | 287 | 277 | 204 | 122 | 323 || 1458 Block: Shield | | | | | | | 67 | 215 | 562 || 844

a game where you avoid getting attacked looks like this:
http://crawl.berotato.org/crawl/morgue/ ... 154244.txt

Code:: Armor: Robe | 2 | 8 | 14 | 32 | 16 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 2 || 94 Leather armour | | | | 3 | | | | | || 3 Skin | | | | | 41 | | | | || 41 Dodge: Dodged | 20 | 44 | 74 | 83 | 70 | 63 | 39 | 54 | 121 || 568

VeryAngryFelid wrote:Why? I don't understand how he survived out-of-MP situations when some non-popcorn is still present. I am really impressed by his game.

Code:: 4482 | D:6 | Learned a level 3 spell: Conjure Flame

You can walk off anything that doesnt step on conjure flame, and damage race anything that stands on it. Also you can "put" enemies on it with poison vapours.

tabstorm wrote:0 skill melee is underrated if you have a good weapon enchant. One game I played I was killing things with glaive of the guard as a Fo with 0 skill in robes reasonably well.

you dont need to train weapons with a long blade, just wield it as a wand and let riposte do its thing while you do your thing.

tasonir wrote:
VeryAngryFelid wrote:
crawlnoob wrote:Your presentation was less than honest.

Why? I don't understand how he survived out-of-MP situations when some non-popcorn is still present. I am really impressed by his game.

Unless the player for some reason has requested you not post the morgue, I think posting anything less than the full morgue is defacto "hiding something". I don't know if your write up is misleading or not, and I make no claim about that, because I have nothing to compare your description to.

In the big picture though, saying that skilled players can win a naga caster on the first try isn't really proving anything, other than some players are quite good. I'm not sure I'd call a naga caster OP, but they are certainly very winnable by players who, before starting the naga caster, was already on a 5 win streak.

After a certain point in a streak, at around 4 wins, it's more likely they're going to win the next game then lose it. There are 375 4 length streaks and 519 streaks of 5 or more wins. This even undercounts somewhat because some of those 375 4 win streaks are still active, but I just combined active/inactive streaks.

It was a joke thread...
No matter what statistics says streaks of N+1 games are less likely to happen than streaks of N games for every N.
Also it does not make sense to compare N streaks with total of (N+1)+ streaks.

I guess what I intended to show was that if you had a streak of 4 wins, and you fire up another game on that account, then the chances of winning that game are > 50%. That doesn't mean that streaks of 5 are more common than 4 (they aren't), because we've explicitly assumed we're already on a 4 win streak.

I guess the better question is what do I think this claim shows; what's the point? My point was "players who are already on a long streak are very good players and are very likely to win". Put another way: If you've already proven you're very good at the game, then you're very good at the game.

It's kind of a bit silly in how obvious it is, but hey.

tasonir wrote:I guess what I intended to show was that if you had a streak of 4 wins, and you fire up another game on that account, then the chances of winning that game are > 50%. That doesn't mean that streaks of 5 are more common than 4 (they aren't), because we've explicitly assumed we're already on a 4 win streak.

I guess the better question is what do I think this claim shows; what's the point? My point was "players who are already on a long streak are very good players and are very likely to win". Put another way: If you've already proven you're very good at the game, then you're very good at the game.

It's kind of a bit silly in how obvious it is, but hey.

I don't think that having 4 games streak requires having 50% winrate in all games. For instance, I have 3 4+ games streaks but my winrate is below 50% at all accounts. Actually 2 of those 3 streaks ended exactly at 5th game so my chance to win 5th game looked close to 33%.

Agreed - you don't need 50% overall winrate for 4+ streaks. The claim I made was only for the specific 5th game, when you won the last 4, that the 5th game is >50% winrate. This claim is objectively true based on the online data, but also not really all that useful. Honestly at this point it's kind of derailing the thread

I have two streaks of exactly 4 wins (and none 5 or higher) on my 2.43% winrate account

tasonir wrote:Agreed - you don't need 50% overall winrate for 4+ streaks. The claim I made was only for the specific 5th game, when you won the last 4, that the 5th game is >50% winrate. This claim is objectively true based on the online data, but also not really all that useful. Honestly at this point it's kind of derailing the thread

I have two streaks of exactly 4 wins (and none 5 or higher) on my 2.43% winrate account

As you can see the claim is not supported by your or my online data

I would argue that it is! Simple example: If there's a 30% chance of rain, and it rains, that doesn't disprove the claim. It has to happen sometimes, and it just so happens that this time it did happen. If a 4 win streak is in progress and game 5 has a 60% winrate, losing doesn't mean the claim isn't supported, you just hit the 40% chance.

You would need to collect a data set of sufficient size and show that it has a significantly different winrate. Since I'm using the full dataset of all 4 win streaks ever, there isn't any other data set to use against me

I just don't think there is a single win rate for streaking games. It is different for different players.

The Tavern

Slow character in robe is OP

Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP

Re: Slow character in robe is OP