DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit


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Post Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 07:08

DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Check it out! https://colinmorris.github.io/blog/dcss_species

Incedentally, Sequell could make similar graphs by making a query with the ' -graph' flag, e.g.,
  Code:
!lg * urune=3 s=crace playable place=Zot|Depths|Dungeon|D:$ /win -graph


Produces this graph (I can't remember how to sort by something else)

Which captures similar information (but not limited to cao games) as the OP's graph:
Image

Some of his visualizations are very cool, and if you're interested in learning about data analysis/visualization using the Python libraries numpy/pandas/matplotlib it's definitely worth taking a look.

There's a cool table lower on the page which ranks species by winrate given they've reached certain milestones (temple, lair, vaults, zot).

Image
colin_morris wrote:The brown bars here are our familiar win-rates from before, but the pink bars are new: they show what % of games each species wins given that it reaches the ecumenical temple.


A disproportionately small pink bar (like the one on trolls), suggests that this species has a strong early game. Getting to the temple doesn't much increase their chance of winning, because they were expecting to make it to the temple. A large pink bar (e.g. ghoul, naga), suggests that going from D:1 to the temple is a significant filter for this species.[/quote]


Links: r/roguelikes thread
r/dcss thread <- Check this out for some commentary by some devs
Last edited by n1000 on Saturday, 4th February 2017, 00:54, edited 1 time in total.

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Post Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 07:38

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Doesn't the first graph miss the case of getting >3 runes?
http://crawl.akrasiac.org/scoring/players/papilio.html

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Post Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 07:53

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Mummy is third-easiest species, while Sp comes at the bottom.

Wait, what?

As the author says, there's likely to be a lot of selection bias. Few people play Ce, because it's OP, while tons of people play Op.

One way to adjust for this is to consider Elo of various players, but even that is problematic. Ultimately, you can only do so much with dirty data.

I am also slightly amused by the long section musing about why DD has such a high winrate. Hint: it has to do with an item they have (or used to have) at the start of the game.
Last edited by bel on Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 07:56, edited 2 times in total.

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Post Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 07:54

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

papilio wrote:Doesn't the first graph miss the case of getting >3 runes?

Yes, by design

bel wrote:Mummy is third-easiest species, while Sp comes at the bottom.

Wait, what?


mummy is the "third-easiest" (in some limited sense) after getting 3 runes

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Post Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 08:16

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Sorry, I mixed up the two graphs. Though if you look at the "adjusted win rate" graph, Mu still comes above Sp, which doesn't make sense to me. Hell, Mummy comes above human, which definitely doesn't make sense.

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Post Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 08:37

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Remove deep dwarves, buff octopodes tbh fam
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Post Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 09:42

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

What I saw was, people liked picking High Elves.

...I'll stop.
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Post Wednesday, 1st February 2017, 11:13

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Mummies do become OP late game. Not as much as Ghouls of course but you still have immunity to mutations and torment. I believe MuFi of Makhleb has easier time than HuFi of TSO, especially now that haste is no longer as spammable.
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Post Friday, 3rd February 2017, 14:40

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

what do we know about winning with swords?
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Post Friday, 3rd February 2017, 15:16

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

VeryAngryFelid wrote:especially now that haste is no longer as spammable

??? The sources of Haste removed were the ones mummies could use. The change impacted Humans too, of course, but it did impact Mummies much more strongly.
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Post Friday, 3rd February 2017, 21:12

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Weird to see Tengu so high on the 3-rune success chart. Not too surprising to see Ghouls at the top though, once you are XL27 nothing can kill you but the torment+hellfire combo, uniques, or Oka/Trog wrath.
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Post Friday, 3rd February 2017, 22:20

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Curious that so few trolls would appear to be making it to Temple (edit: apart from wins, though maybe that's me missing the point?). I often find trolls comparatively easy in early game. Those claws plow through almost everything, if you don't get caught in too many swarm/"special" situations.

I wonder how many are finding say, altars for Trog, Oka, or TSO in the open and not bothering to enter the Temple at all. Or does it count if you just see the Temple entrance, but don't go in?
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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 00:56

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

you're misinterpreting, lots of trolls make it to temple, but they have a low chance of winning once they've made it there (whereas for other species it's a relatively much bigger step towards winning the game)

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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 01:04

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

n1000 already answered this, but to throw in some more detail:

Trolls have a relatively large red (baseline) bar because they have a high winrate overall. The pink bar is how much their winrate improves when you look at only games which reached the temple. This bar is small for trolls, because most trolls can reach the temple, so getting there doesn't change much. A weak race that dies before the temple a lot will see a bigger increase (pink bar) because now they've gotten past that difficult d1-d:4 (or d:7) period. A lot of the difficulty for trolls is around the start of the mid game, when your natural bonuses (claws, regen rate) start to shrink compared to monster power, and you haven't yet found an end game dragon armor to make up for your bad defenses. Usually after finding a good dragon armor they return to above average power in my experience :)

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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 01:49

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

trolls are far above average power among races for the entire course of the game

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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 02:49

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

duvessa wrote:trolls are far above average power among races for the entire course of the game

True, but surely you'd agree that the hardest part of the game for trolls is somewhere in the middle, and not D:1? Trolls go easy -> less easy -> easy. Just how hard it gets in the middle is something of a judgement call, but I'd agree they're never actually bad.

Back on the original topic - I have always thought octopodes should get a 0 for their hp aptitude, not -1. Maybe we can get this pushed through with statistics that they're apparently the worst race ever ;) ZERO FOR OCTOPODE JUSTICE!

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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 05:07

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

i think the hardest part of the game for trolls is D:2 and D:3 personally

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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 06:07

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

duvessa wrote:i think the hardest part of the game for trolls is D:2 and D:3 personally


Why? They still tab everything except Grinder/Sigmund.
For me the hardest level is one with first rune
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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 14:24

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

tasonir wrote:n1000 already answered this, but to throw in some more detail:

Trolls have a relatively large red (baseline) bar because they have a high winrate overall. The pink bar is how much their winrate improves when you look at only games which reached the temple. This bar is small for trolls, because most trolls can reach the temple, so getting there doesn't change much. A weak race that dies before the temple a lot will see a bigger increase (pink bar) because now they've gotten past that difficult d1-d:4 (or d:7) period. A lot of the difficulty for trolls is around the start of the mid game, when your natural bonuses (claws, regen rate) start to shrink compared to monster power, and you haven't yet found an end game dragon armor to make up for your bad defenses. Usually after finding a good dragon armor they return to above average power in my experience :)

Yeah, I agree about that kind of difficulty curve. I'm just having bad squint at graph and interpret moment.
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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 14:27

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

duvessa wrote:i think the hardest part of the game for trolls is D:2 and D:3 personally

I think around D:3 (and maybe somewhat deeper?) surprises a lot of characters. You start to hit those orc and gnoll packs in force much more consistently. I'm not sure if it's worse for trolls than other melee heavy characters, though.
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Post Saturday, 4th February 2017, 21:52

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

VeryAngryFelid wrote:
duvessa wrote:i think the hardest part of the game for trolls is D:2 and D:3 personally


Why?
Probably because most players won't retreat/pillar dance to regen.

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Post Monday, 6th February 2017, 23:16

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

For me personally the hardest levels as a troll is probably around end of lair, orc (if you get a lot of the high level casters and don't split them up) or the first rune branch. It can vary based on what you find. The first orc priest on D3/4 can be tricky but you've got regen and can just walk backwards at that point, so I'd say the threat of fast lair subbranch swarms can be more dangerous. Or slow swarms in snake, if they managed to get teleported next to you by a guardian serpent :)

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Post Tuesday, 7th February 2017, 06:15

Re: DCSS Data Analysis by dude on reddit

Rast wrote:Probably because most players won't retreat/pillar dance to regen.


But then it means they will die during middle game which means D:2-D:3 were easier because they didn't die there.
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