Potion probabilities
Posted:
Sunday, 2nd February 2014, 22:51by Sprucery
I thought before that potions of slowing were pretty common. Well, in my current game I cleared D to 23, Lair, Orc, Shoals, Spider, Vaults 1 - 3 (and partly 4) and on Elf:1 found a brown potion. With great expectations I identified it, ... a potion of slowing. Only cure mutation, decay and experience still unidentified.
Re: Potion probabilities
Posted:
Sunday, 2nd February 2014, 23:09by Grimm
the illusion of clustering
Re: Potion probabilities
Posted:
Monday, 3rd February 2014, 04:59by variouselite
no i totally agree, the weights must be off. i mean what else could it be?
Re: Potion probabilities
Posted:
Monday, 3rd February 2014, 06:07by savageorange
It happens. A few times I've found that a stack of 3 potions I thought were HW or curing are actually mutation, cure mutation or experience.
That's the problem with making statistical inferences from a few (and by few, I mean "less than 100") data points. It doesn't mean shit. Every possible short-term trend can be produced by an unbiased RNG.
Re: Potion probabilities
Posted:
Monday, 3rd February 2014, 08:21by duvessa
normally generated potions are 23.3% curing, 11.5% heal wounds, 6.5% restore abilities, 5.3% poison, 5.3% might, 5.3% agility, 5.3% brilliance, 5% speed, 2.8% invisibility, 2.8% flight, 2.8% resistance, 2.8% magic, 2.8% berserk rage, 2.65% mutation, 2.65% lignification (slowing), 2.65% paralysis, 2.65% confusion, 2.3% degeneration, 1.8% cure mutation, 1.25% strong poison, 0.9% beneficial mutation, 0.85% blood, 0.6% porridge, 0.1% experience, 0.1% decay. these figures are exact, however, poison, berserk rage, and strong poison will be rerolled if the item level is low enough (unless it was just rerolled 500 times in a row, in which case it will generate). also, any of these can be turned into a stack of two or three, except for beneficial mutation, experience, and restore abilities (wtf), so that makes those three rarer.
these are also retarded by uniques, gnoll sergeants, and vaults. in particular sewers and ossuaries appear in a lot of games and usually have tons of scrolls/potions with completely different weights. ossuaries have a tradition of giving out like 5 paralysis/confusion/degeneration/slowification potions every time; this is one reason why they seem so common.
Re: Potion probabilities
Posted:
Monday, 3rd February 2014, 10:54by Sprucery
duvessa wrote:5% speed, [...] 2.65% mutation, 2.65% lignification (slowing), 1.8% cure mutation
In this case, it seems that the clustering illusion for me was in that I thought slowing is roughly as common as speed, when speed is in fact almost twice as common. Now that I see that slowing is as rare as mutation and only somewhat more common than cure mutation, it does not seem strange at all not to find slowing before Elf:1.
What could be the reasoning behind restore abilities not being generated in stacks?
Re: Potion probabilities
Posted:
Monday, 3rd February 2014, 12:34by Leafsnail
RIP sewers which gave you 7 experience potions at once
Re: Potion probabilities
Posted:
Monday, 3rd February 2014, 19:26by some12fat2move
duvessa wrote:normally generated potions are 23.3% curing, 11.5% heal wounds, 6.5% restore abilities, 5.3% poison, 5.3% might, 5.3% agility, 5.3% brilliance, 5% speed, 2.8% invisibility, 2.8% flight, 2.8% resistance, 2.8% magic, 2.8% berserk rage, 2.65% mutation, 2.65% lignification (slowing), 2.65% paralysis, 2.65% confusion, 2.3% degeneration, 1.8% cure mutation, 1.25% strong poison, 0.9% beneficial mutation, 0.85% blood, 0.6% porridge, 0.1% experience, 0.1% decay. these figures are exact, however, poison, berserk rage, and strong poison will be rerolled if the item level is low enough (unless it was just rerolled 500 times in a row, in which case it will generate). also, any of these can be turned into a stack of two or three, except for beneficial mutation, experience, and restore abilities (wtf), so that makes those three rarer.
these are also retarded by uniques, gnoll sergeants, and vaults. in particular sewers and ossuaries appear in a lot of games and usually have tons of scrolls/potions with completely different weights. ossuaries have a tradition of giving out like 5 paralysis/confusion/degeneration/slowification potions every time; this is one reason why they seem so common.
So in the event that you have identified all potion types in the game except for experience and decay, and you pick up a stack of two unidentified potions, you know that these two are decay and the different unidentified potion you've stashed away is experience?
Re: Potion probabilities
Posted:
Tuesday, 4th February 2014, 00:07by duvessa
yup! unless it came from a vault that places two potions of experience in a stack. and you can rule out the possibility that a scroll is brand weapon, enchant weapon 3, acquirement, torment, holy word, and silence, if you see it generate in a stack. you can also rule out all of those plus summoning and vulnerability if it generated before d:4. isnt the identification minigame so fun and intuitive and great???