Potion probabilities


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Ziggurat Zagger

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Post Sunday, 2nd February 2014, 22:51

Potion probabilities

I thought before that potions of slowing were pretty common. Well, in my current game I cleared D to 23, Lair, Orc, Shoals, Spider, Vaults 1 - 3 (and partly 4) and on Elf:1 found a brown potion. With great expectations I identified it, ... a potion of slowing. Only cure mutation, decay and experience still unidentified.
DCSS: 77: ...SpWz{OgGlTrMo}{CeWnMfBeMiSk}DrEE{GrFiFoGl}DgEnFeNe{OpGlHuSu}DDAr
HaCKSpAEGrTmDgFEDsCjGhMoHuVM{HaAMBaEn}{HuMoHOWn}DsWzDDHu{DgWnGnBe}FeIE
{MiEnMfCj}SpNeBaEEGrFE{HaAKTrCK}DsFESpHu{FoArNaBe}FeEE{HOIEMiAE}GrGlHuWrGnWr
Bloat: 4: RaRoPrPh{GuStGnCa
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Pandemonium Purger

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Post Sunday, 2nd February 2014, 23:08

Re: Potion probabilities

Yeah
seattle washington. friends for life. mods hate on me and devs ignore my posts. creater of exoelfs and dc:pt

Ziggurat Zagger

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Post Sunday, 2nd February 2014, 23:09

Re: Potion probabilities

the illusion of clustering

Swamp Slogger

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Joined: Thursday, 29th August 2013, 02:22

Post Monday, 3rd February 2014, 04:59

Re: Potion probabilities

no i totally agree, the weights must be off. i mean what else could it be?

Blades Runner

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Post Monday, 3rd February 2014, 06:07

Re: Potion probabilities

It happens. A few times I've found that a stack of 3 potions I thought were HW or curing are actually mutation, cure mutation or experience.

That's the problem with making statistical inferences from a few (and by few, I mean "less than 100") data points. It doesn't mean shit. Every possible short-term trend can be produced by an unbiased RNG.

Ziggurat Zagger

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Post Monday, 3rd February 2014, 08:21

Re: Potion probabilities

normally generated potions are 23.3% curing, 11.5% heal wounds, 6.5% restore abilities, 5.3% poison, 5.3% might, 5.3% agility, 5.3% brilliance, 5% speed, 2.8% invisibility, 2.8% flight, 2.8% resistance, 2.8% magic, 2.8% berserk rage, 2.65% mutation, 2.65% lignification (slowing), 2.65% paralysis, 2.65% confusion, 2.3% degeneration, 1.8% cure mutation, 1.25% strong poison, 0.9% beneficial mutation, 0.85% blood, 0.6% porridge, 0.1% experience, 0.1% decay. these figures are exact, however, poison, berserk rage, and strong poison will be rerolled if the item level is low enough (unless it was just rerolled 500 times in a row, in which case it will generate). also, any of these can be turned into a stack of two or three, except for beneficial mutation, experience, and restore abilities (wtf), so that makes those three rarer.
these are also retarded by uniques, gnoll sergeants, and vaults. in particular sewers and ossuaries appear in a lot of games and usually have tons of scrolls/potions with completely different weights. ossuaries have a tradition of giving out like 5 paralysis/confusion/degeneration/slowification potions every time; this is one reason why they seem so common.

For this message the author duvessa has received thanks:
Sprucery
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Ziggurat Zagger

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Post Monday, 3rd February 2014, 10:54

Re: Potion probabilities

duvessa wrote:5% speed, [...] 2.65% mutation, 2.65% lignification (slowing), 1.8% cure mutation


In this case, it seems that the clustering illusion for me was in that I thought slowing is roughly as common as speed, when speed is in fact almost twice as common. Now that I see that slowing is as rare as mutation and only somewhat more common than cure mutation, it does not seem strange at all not to find slowing before Elf:1.

What could be the reasoning behind restore abilities not being generated in stacks?
DCSS: 77: ...SpWz{OgGlTrMo}{CeWnMfBeMiSk}DrEE{GrFiFoGl}DgEnFeNe{OpGlHuSu}DDAr
HaCKSpAEGrTmDgFEDsCjGhMoHuVM{HaAMBaEn}{HuMoHOWn}DsWzDDHu{DgWnGnBe}FeIE
{MiEnMfCj}SpNeBaEEGrFE{HaAKTrCK}DsFESpHu{FoArNaBe}FeEE{HOIEMiAE}GrGlHuWrGnWr
Bloat: 4: RaRoPrPh{GuStGnCa

Vaults Vanquisher

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Post Monday, 3rd February 2014, 12:34

Re: Potion probabilities

RIP sewers which gave you 7 experience potions at once

Ziggurat Zagger

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Joined: Sunday, 5th May 2013, 08:25

Post Monday, 3rd February 2014, 18:01

Re: Potion probabilities

Sprucery wrote:What could be the reasoning behind restore abilities not being generated in stacks?
its crawl

Vaults Vanquisher

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Location: U.S.

Post Monday, 3rd February 2014, 19:26

Re: Potion probabilities

duvessa wrote:normally generated potions are 23.3% curing, 11.5% heal wounds, 6.5% restore abilities, 5.3% poison, 5.3% might, 5.3% agility, 5.3% brilliance, 5% speed, 2.8% invisibility, 2.8% flight, 2.8% resistance, 2.8% magic, 2.8% berserk rage, 2.65% mutation, 2.65% lignification (slowing), 2.65% paralysis, 2.65% confusion, 2.3% degeneration, 1.8% cure mutation, 1.25% strong poison, 0.9% beneficial mutation, 0.85% blood, 0.6% porridge, 0.1% experience, 0.1% decay. these figures are exact, however, poison, berserk rage, and strong poison will be rerolled if the item level is low enough (unless it was just rerolled 500 times in a row, in which case it will generate). also, any of these can be turned into a stack of two or three, except for beneficial mutation, experience, and restore abilities (wtf), so that makes those three rarer.
these are also retarded by uniques, gnoll sergeants, and vaults. in particular sewers and ossuaries appear in a lot of games and usually have tons of scrolls/potions with completely different weights. ossuaries have a tradition of giving out like 5 paralysis/confusion/degeneration/slowification potions every time; this is one reason why they seem so common.

So in the event that you have identified all potion types in the game except for experience and decay, and you pick up a stack of two unidentified potions, you know that these two are decay and the different unidentified potion you've stashed away is experience?

Ziggurat Zagger

Posts: 8782

Joined: Sunday, 5th May 2013, 08:25

Post Tuesday, 4th February 2014, 00:07

Re: Potion probabilities

yup! unless it came from a vault that places two potions of experience in a stack. and you can rule out the possibility that a scroll is brand weapon, enchant weapon 3, acquirement, torment, holy word, and silence, if you see it generate in a stack. you can also rule out all of those plus summoning and vulnerability if it generated before d:4. isnt the identification minigame so fun and intuitive and great???

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